What To Expect from Mortgage Rates and Home Prices in 2025
Curious about where the housing market is headed in 2025? The good news is that experts are offering some promising forecasts, especially when it comes to two key factors that directly affect your decisions: mortgage rates and home prices. Whether you're thinking of buying or selling, here’s a look at what the experts are saying and how it might impact your move. Mortgage Rates Are Forecast To Come Down One of the biggest factors likely affecting your plans is mortgage rates, and the forecast looks positive. After rising dramatically in recent years, experts project rates will ease slightly throughout the course of 2025 (see graph below): While that decline won’t be a straight line down, the overall trend should continue over the next year. Expect a few bumps along the way, because the trajectory of rates will depend on new economic data and inflation numbers as they’re released. But don’t get too hung up on those blips and reactions from the market as they happen. Focus on the bigger picture. Lower mortgage rates mean improving affordability. As rates come down, your monthly mortgage payment decreases, giving you more flexibility in what you can afford if you buy a home. This shift will likely bring more buyers and sellers back into the market, though. As Charlie Dougherty, Director and Senior Economist at Wells Fargo, explains: “Lower financing costs will likely boost demand by pulling affordability-crunched buyers off of the sidelines.” As that happens, both inventory and competition among buyers will ramp back up. The takeaway? You can get ahead of that competition now. Lean on your agent to make sure you understand how the shifts in rates are impacting demand in your area. Home Price Projections Show Modest Growth While mortgage rates are expected to come down slightly, home prices are forecast to rise—but at a much more moderate pace than the market has seen in recent years. Experts are saying home prices will grow by an average of about 2.5% nationally in 2025 (see graph below): This is far more manageable than the rapid price increases of previous years, which saw double-digit percentage growth in some markets. What’s behind this ongoing increase in prices? Again, it has to do with demand. As more buyers return to the market, demand will rise – but so will supply as sellers feel less rate-locked. More buyers in markets with inventory that’s still below the norm will put upward pressure on prices. But with more homes likely to be listed, supply will help keep price growth in check. This means that while prices will rise, they’ll do so at a healthier, more sustainable pace. Of course, these national trends may not reflect exactly what’s happening in your local market. Some areas might see faster price growth, while others could see slower gains. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, says: “Even if the average national home price forecast for 2025 is correct, it’s possible that some regional housing markets could see mild home price declines, while some markets could still see elevated appreciation. That has been, after all, the case this year.” Even the few markets that may see flat or slightly lower prices in 2025 have had so much appreciation in recent years – it may not have a big impact. That’s why it’s important to work with a local real estate expert who can give you a clear picture of what’s happening where you’re looking to buy or sell. Bottom Line With mortgage rates expected to ease and home prices projected to rise at a more moderate pace, 2025 is shaping up to be a more promising year for both buyers and sellers. If you have any questions about how these trends might impact your plans, let’s connect. That way you’ve got someone to help you navigate the market and make the most of the opportunities ahead.
Home Values Rise Even as Median Prices Fall
Recent headlines have been buzzing about the median asking price of homes dropping compared to last year, and that’s sparked plenty of confusion. And as a buyer or seller, it’s easy to assume that means prices are coming down. But here’s the catch: those numbers don’t tell the full story. Nationally, home values are actually rising, even if the median price is down a bit. Let’s break down what’s really happening so you can make sense of the market without getting caught up in the fear the headlines create. Homes on the Market Right Now Are Smaller The biggest reason for the dip in median price is the size of homes being sold. The median price reflects the middle point of all the homes for sale at any given time. And that’ll be affected by the mix of homes on the market. To show you how this works, here’s a simple explanation of a median (see visual below). Let’s say you have three coins in your pocket, and you decide to line them up according to their value from low to high. If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median (the middle one) is 10 cents. If you have two nickels and one dime, the median is now five cents. In both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth 10 cents. The value of each coin didn’t change. The same is true for housing. Right now, there’s a greater number of smaller, less expensive homes on the market, and that’s bringing the overall median price down. But that doesn’t mean home values are declining. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains: “The share of inventory of smaller and more affordable homes has grown, which helps hold down the median price even as per-square-foot prices grow further.” And here’s the data to prove it. Price Per Square Foot Is Still Rising One of the best ways to measure home values is by looking at the price per square foot. That’s because it shows how much you're paying for the space inside the home. The median asking price doesn't take into account the size of different homes, so it may not always reflect the true value. And the latest national price per square foot data shows home values are still increasing, even though the median asking price has dropped (see graph below). As Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains: “When a change in the mix of inventory toward smaller homes is accounted for, the typical home listed this year has increased in asking price compared with last year.” This means that while smaller homes are affecting the median price, the average home’s value is still rising. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA): “Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.” So, while headlines may make it sound like prices are crashing, you don’t have to worry. With a closer look and more reliable data, you can see that prices are still climbing nationally. But it’s important to remember that home prices can vary by region. While national trends provide a big-picture view, local markets may be experiencing different conditions. A trusted agent is the best resource to explain what’s happening in your area. Bottom Line The decrease in median price is not the same as a decrease in home values. The median asking price is down mostly due to the mix of smaller, less expensive homes on the market. The important thing to focus on is the price per square foot, which is a better indicator of overall market value—and those prices are still going up. If you have questions about what home prices are doing in our area, feel free to reach out.
The Best Time To Buy a Home This Year
A shift is underway in the housing market this season. And if you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right moment to jump back into your homebuying search, this is a great time to do it. That’s because the best week to buy a home this year is just around the corner. Your sweet spot is here. The experts at Realtor.com study seasonal trends to figure out the ideal week for homebuyers: “Nationally, the best time to buy in 2024 is the week of Sept. 29–Oct. 5. This week historically has shown the best balance of market conditions that favor buyers. Inventory tends to be high, prices are below peak levels, demand is waning, and the pace of the market slows to a more manageable speed.” In addition to the historical trends and typical seasonality that Realtor.com looks at, there are also clear indicators in today’s market data that you’ll see better conditions right now than you would have over the last few years. Mortgage rates just hit their lowest point in 19 months, and that goes a long way to help with your purchasing power and affordability. Andy Walden with Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) points out: “Recent easing in mortgage rates brought some much-sought relief to prospective homebuyers. Along with a general cooling in home price growth, rates falling below 6.5 percent made August the most affordable month for housing since February.” And Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains that it’s not just rates that have improved – inventory has too: “The number of homes actively for sale continues to be elevated compared with last year, growing by 35.8%, a 10th straight month of growth, and now sits at the highest since May 2020.” That should give you more options. At the same time, sellers now have to compete with each other for your attention. That means they’ll be more likely to negotiate because they know their house will sit on the market longer if they don’t. As Zillow says: “Buyers waiting on the sidelines could find that early fall presents a ‘sweet spot,’ where there’s less competition from other buyers, more motivated sellers and lower interest rates to finance their purchases.” Bottom Line If you want to make sure you’re ready to take advantage of this sweet spot, let’s connect and start the prep work now. Maybe it’s time to get off the sidelines and into the action.
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